我国自然资源“十三五”规划评估实践探索

自然资源规划评估在实践探索中形成了一套“三期十步法”的评估模式。文章以总结国内外规划评估经验为基础,具体阐述自然资源“十三五”规划评估开展的基本内容和任务,并结合实践中存在的突出问题,提出完善“十四五”规划评估的建议:一是推动自然资源规划评估标准化建设;二是构建完善的评估数据信息系统;三是建立良好的评估运行监测机制;四是加大规划评估的宣传引导。     

混合型基金绩效评估及驱动因素分析——基于DEA-Tobit模型

将随机选出的混合型基金作为研究样本,采用DEA-Tobit二阶段模型进行研究.首先利用数据包络模型对样本进行绩效评估,在此基础上,利用Tobit模型研究相关指标对于基金绩效的影响机制.结果表明,基金本身所面临的风险收益因素以及基金经理团队稳定性对于基金绩效均具显著影响.最后结合实证结果就提升中国基金绩效提出相关的建议.     

南京江北新区新型城镇化发展质量评价与提升路径

文章构建了由31项指标组成的新型城镇化综合发展质量评价指标体系,运用AHP层次分析法和熵值法,选择19个国家级新区中2018年经济总量排名前十的新区进行定量对比分析,并结合民生幸福建设群众满意度问卷调查分析,对南京江北新区新型城镇化发展质量进行综合评价。研究表明:(1)南京江北新区新型城镇化整体发展处于中上游水平,与发达新区相比存在一定差距,产业结构亟需优化;(2)发展增长方式、资源利用率、环境保护类指标明显落后;(3)科教文卫、居民生活等指标具有比较优势。文章最后提出新型城镇化提升路径为加快生态环境和公共服务建设,积极提升科教和生态示范效应,做大做强主导产业,促进城乡特色均衡发展和推进以人为核心的新型城镇化。     

Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

An evaluation framework for developing green infrastructure by using a new hybrid multiple attribute decision-making model for promoting environmental sustainability

With the expansion of urbanization caused by the growth of population and industrial activities, the urban/city and suburban areas are facing a variety of environmental threats. Although more research and urban policy has advocated and practiced the development of green infrastructure (GI) to support urban sustainable environment, the evaluation framework for the development of GI for promoting environmental sustainability is still insufficient. Moreover, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) commonly applied in published literature, makes an unrealistic assumption of independent relationships among dimensions/criteria in decision making for satisfying the real-world problem. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to construct the evaluation framework, including four dimensions and related ten criteria, using a new hybrid-modified multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) model for developing and improving the GI for promoting environmental sustainability. This MADM model is combined with three different methodologies of MADM, including the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) for constructing the influential network relation map (INRM) to explore the complex influential inter-relationships and DEMATEL based on Analytic Network Process (DANP) for determining the influential weights with the VIse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) for evaluating and presenting improvement strategies for six different GIs. The empirical study indicates that DEMATEL and DANP Results suggest that decision-makers should pay more attention to the improvement of Design (D₄) and Materials (D₂) in terms of dimensions when utilizing the GI to promote environmental sustainability. Because these dimensions are enhanced, Species (D₁) and Energy (D₃) will be improved in synchronization. From the perspective of criteria, five are key core criteria and need to be focused on first: increasing the green coverage rate (B₉), utilizing sustainable materials (B₄), using ecological engineering (B₈), shaping species biodiversity (B₁), and reducing energy consumption (B₅). Modified VIKOR reveals that “grass swales” are a comparatively better choice among six GIs for promoting environmental sustainability toward achieving the aspiration level. Therefore, this MADM model is beneficial to provide a more convincing assessment framework and improvement strategies for the development of GI for promoting environmental sustainability. As a result, these modified MADM models can be shown more conveniently and reasonably than traditional methods such as traditional AHP or ANP method.     

基于PSR模型的北京市西北生态涵养区生态健康评价研究

研究目的:作为保障首都生态环境质量与可持续发展的关键区域,北京市西北生态涵养区的生态健康程度反映了生态文明战略部署下首都高质量发展的综合成效。本文通过构建北京市西北生态涵养区健康评价指标体系,评价该区域的生态健康程度,为生态涵养区的可持续发展提供对策建议。研究方法:PSR模型、层次分析法(AHP)。研究结果:(1)基于PSR模型构建的生态健康评价指标体系包括压力、状态和响应系统3个准则层和10个评价指标,涵盖涵养区自然生态和人类活动影响;(2)研究区4个时段的健康指数分别为0.673、0.664、0.650、0.687,生态健康等级为一般。研究结论:北京市西北涵养区生态健康状况较为稳定,在保持西北涵养区建设现有成果的基础上,需要加大生态建设的力度,进一步提高生态健康水平。     

盐城市水资源承载状态预警研究

在分析水资源承载状态预警概念的基础上,引入"三类六级"预警思想,采用可变模糊法和层次分析法的思想,构建盐城市水资源承载状态综合预警指标体系,评价盐城市2015年、2020年和2030年的水资源承载状态,并结合各年份承载状态变化趋势,对未来年份进行预警。结果表明:盐城市2015年水资源处于临界超载的状态,但随着"关于做好建立全国水资源承载能力监测预警机制工作的通知"等一系列措施的实施,2020年、2030年承载状态将逐步好转,到2030年将处于可载的状态。     

Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model

This paper introduces a combination of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects in order to build superior extensions of the GARCH-MIDAS model for modeling and forecasting the stock volatility. Our in-sample results clearly verify that extreme shocks have a significant impact on the stock volatility and that the volatility can be influenced more by the asymmetry effect than by the extreme volatility effect in both the long and short term. Out-of-sample results with several robustness checks demonstrate that our proposed models can achieve better performances in forecasting the volatility. Furthermore, the improvement in predictive ability is attributed more strongly to the introduction of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects for the short-term volatility component.     

Waste of money or growth opportunity: The causal effect of EU subsidies on Hungarian SMEs

Although EU subsidies aiming at economic development play a pivotal role not only for Hungary but for the entire European Union as well, there is a debate regarding their effectiveness in the literature. This paper investigates the impact of direct economic development subsidies extended in the context of Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund as part of the 2007–2013 programming period of the European Union on Hungarian micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Based on a micro database, we evaluate the impact of corporates’ first subsidies on various performance indicators, using a combination of propensity score matching and fixed effects panel regression. According to our results, economic development funds had a significant positive effect on the number of employees, sales revenue, gross value added and, in some cases, operating profit. However, the labour productivity of enterprises was not significantly affected by any of the support schemes. Furthermore, by explicitly comparing non-refundable subsidies (grants) and refundable assistance (financial instruments), we find that there is no significant difference in the effectiveness of the two types of subsidy.     

Operational excellence in a green supply chain for environmental management: A case study

Nowadays, organizations have started to become more conscious about the environment in their supply chain operations. The greening process has guided supply chain practices into new ways of thinking according to green standards. The assessment of the performance of green supply chain management (GSCM) requires a holistic view for the whole supply chain. In this context, given that becoming green in the operational side of activities is essential, the performance assessment of operational activities also requires a holistic view to be taken. In this paper, an attempt has been made to improve the performance of GSCM by examining and evaluating the green operational excellence of a hot dip galvanizing company. The framework includes several green operational excellence key criteria, namely, quality management, efficiency management, green production/manufacturing, eco‐packaging, and green design. First, the weights of the criteria and the respective measurements were found by fuzzy analytic network process. Then, the overall operational performance score was found by a weighted scoring method. Finally, both managerial and theoretical implications were suggested according to the outcomes and findings of the case study.